SolidBowtie

Critical project failure

The flagship programme that runs late, over budget or unusable — caught by stage gates, scope control and honest go-live criteria.

HazardLarge transformation projects with many interdependencies
Top eventThe flagship project fails to deliver

5 threats 11 barriers 3 consequences safety-critical barriers marked

Use this template free. Copy “Critical project failure” into your own workspace and adapt every barrier — no credit card.

Start free with this template →

Threats & preventive barriers

Each threat is a credible pathway to the top event; its barriers interrupt that pathway before control is lost.

Unclear or creeping scope

  • Scope baseline with change control ★ critical

    Socio-technical · 80% effective · Owner: PMO Lead

    Executive pet features bypass change control

  • Business case re-validated at each phase

    Socio-technical · 70% effective · Owner: Project Sponsor

Vendor underperformance

  • Milestone contracts with acceptance criteria

    Socio-technical · 75% effective · Owner: Procurement Lead

  • Joint steering with escalation paths

    Socio-technical · 65% effective · Owner: Project Sponsor

Key resource gaps mid-project

  • Ring-fenced team with backfill budget

    Socio-technical · 70% effective · Owner: PMO Lead

Technical integration surprises

  • Architecture review & early integration spikes

    Socio-technical · 75% effective · Owner: Chief Architect

    📅 Architecture review · quarterly keep-alive task

Systematically optimistic planning

  • Independent estimate review

    Socio-technical · 65% effective · Owner: PMO Lead

Consequences & recovery barriers

Once the top event happens, recovery barriers limit each consequence.

Sunk cost and write-off

  • Stage gates with explicit kill criteria ★ critical

    Socio-technical · 80% effective · Owner: Project Sponsor

    📅 Stage-gate review · quarterly keep-alive task

Business disruption at go-live

  • Parallel running & tested rollback plan ★ critical

    Socio-technical · 80% effective · Owner: Operations Director

  • Go-live readiness checklist with sign-off

    Socio-technical · 75% effective · Owner: PMO Lead

Team burnout and attrition

  • Realistic cutover schedule with recovery time

    Behavioural (human) · 60% effective · Owner: PMO Lead

Copying this template gives you a fully editable bowtie: barrier owners arrive as role suggestions, escalation factors sit on their barriers, and keep-alive activities are scheduled from the moment you copy. New to the notation? Read what the bowtie method is or browse the practical guides.

Use this template free. Copy “Critical project failure” into your own workspace and adapt every barrier — no credit card.

Start free with this template →